Pakistan prepares for political chaos as election results suggest a surge in favour of Imran Khan’s candidates- but with no clear winner yet, can the man seen as the military’s choice- Nawaz Sharif still forge a government?
Results are trickling in from Pakistan’s election nearly 24 hours later- which itself is news, as normally results are done within 8 or 9 hours of the polls closing- leading to fears of electoral manipulations further. Whatever else is in doubt- this is certainly not the easy win that many had predicted for Nawaz Sharif
So first- Here's what you need to know about Pakistan elections and what they voted for
Pakistan holds elections for 266 seats of the National Assembly or parliament- , and State assembly elections. The National Assembly has 336 seats in all- 60 are reserved for women, 10 for minorities which are nominated by parties in proportion to their seats.
134 seats are needed by a party or a coalition to be invited to form government- an if you look at the number of seats, it is easy to see how Punjab state is the main decider of the National government- here is the break up of seats:
Punjab – 141 seats
Sindh- 61 seats
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa- 45 seats
Balochistan- 16 seats
Islamabad Capital Territory- 3 seats
Provincial or State Assembly elections for Punjab, Sind, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies are also expected- broad trends appear to give Sindh to the Pakistan People’s Party, KPK to Independents affilitated to Imran Khan, while Punjab is seeing many wins by Independents, but Sharif’s PML-N as the biggest party and likely to form the state assembly. It should also be noted that while Independents were winning by large leads across the country overnight- by the next afternoon- it seemed many of the results turned in favour of PML-N
Now what’s different about these elections?
Former PM Imran Khan is in jail- and still very popular… he was disqualified from standing after being charged with corruption, misappropriation and a case of national security. He has not been able to campaign, or speak to supporters, and has used AI and other innovative means to reach voters. On voting day, the government suspended the internet, and telephone communications were down, leading to more allegations that this was an attempt to manage the outcome.While leaders of major parties have often been in jail during elections – this is the first time since 2008 where a political party itself has been stopped from campaigning- Imran Khan’s PTI has lost not just its recognition, but also its party symbol the cricket bat- and as a result had to put up candidates with different symbols.
Nawaz Sharif- former PM, who had earlier been disqualified and sentenced to prison has been given protection from arrest, and a waiver of the charges against him that allowed him to return to Pakistan after 4 years
Analysts say this election in 2024 is the mirror image of the 2018 elections- when Imran Khan won the elections, while Nawaz Sharif was convicted and sentenced to prison.
But what has made this election truly different is this- that the PTI has not given up standing for elections despite the restrictions, that people have registered a strong turnout despite the cynicism, and the votes for a record number of independents show that there was both a political and public resistance to the outcome that was seen as the military establishment’s favourite for this election
0:00 Intro
1:25 Overview of Pakistan elections
3:53 What’s different about 2024 Pak elections
7:13 Possible Outcomes of the Pakistan vote
9:19 History of similar Pak elections
11:13 Impact for region & India
13:00 WV take
13:47 Reading recommendation
Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan
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