2 years into the Ukraine war- that originally was expected to have been much shorter- here are the 5 things you need to know:
1. 2 years after the Russia announced its special operations in Ukraine- If by March 2022 Russia had occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, by 2024 it still controls about 17% of it. By the end of the year, estimates say Russia will have spent $132 billion, and lost more than $300 bn due to financial sanctions by the west. But its sales of oil are nearly back to pre-war levels due to countries like China, India and Brazil.
2.Ukraine has borne the brunt of the war- tens of thousands dead, more than 14 million displaced, of which 6 million are now refugees living in 11 countries. Cities, infrastructure destroyed, and a constant pressure on its arms and military resources. According to the Ukrainian Dy FM- Ukraine has already suffered $500 bn in losses. It is now applying for membership to the European Union-NATO membership may more complicated
3. The 2 years of war have shown many faultlines in the west as different countries Debate over funding the war. The US, heading into an uncertain election is seeing pushback in Congress, European countries have seen a more unified voice, but many in Europe are not yet increasing their Defence budgets to the 2% required for Ukraine. One obvious outcome : Finland and Sweden have now joined NATO. (SEE ATTACHED SCREENSHOT) There’s also no question that Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has brought new schisms, and also exposed some of the double speak of these countries on civilian deaths.
4. A similar kind of contested unity in the Global South- that largely disapproves of Russia’s actions, but doesn’t agree with the unilateral sanctions imposed on Russia, or the narrative that holds only Russia responsible. At the G20 summit in India last year, the final joint statement did not criticize Russia for the war in any way. And despite western discomfort, 5 new members joined BRICS this year- including UAE, KSA, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia.
5. Is there a UN or multilateral way forward? Russia has ruled out pulling its troops out of entrenched positions- however, at Ukraine’s request, Switzerland is planning a peace Conference in the coming months, and has asked all countries including India to attend, with an eye on possible mediators
#russia #russiaukrainewar
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