I chat here about the latest science on tipping points in the dynamic fluid systems of the Earth, namely the ocean circulation patterns and the atmospheric circulation patterns.
The most recent key review document containing this knowledge summary is “Global Tipping Points 2023”: https://global-tipping-points.org/
The key ocean current systems that are presently showing early warning signs of rapid approach to tipping points include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the Antarctic Southern Circulation systems.
There is a huge risk that as the slowdown and even stoppage of some of these global ocean circulation systems proceeds, the monsoonal rainfall in the tropics from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will all change, as the ITCZ would shift southward, so the existing monsoonal patterns would all shift, with the existing monsoonal regions getting much drier as the rainfall falls in regions further to the south. Clearly, this would impact millions to hundreds of millions to even billions of people in these regions.
Also, changes to the atmospheric circulation are examined, with the conclusion (in the review paper) essentially being that the shifts are not likely to exhibit tipping behaviour (don’t think I agree).
Also, effects on the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) to a more “permanent El Niño state) are discussed.
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