Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.) At the beginning of March, Russia announced that it would be cutting oil output as a part of a broader OPEC+ plan to reduce raise global prices. However, there are two reasons that this may be happening. First, as a consequence of the war, it could be that Russia has lost the capacity to produce the same level of oil. Second, it could be that Russia is taking steps to ensure that the cartel pricing scheme does not fall apart. This video examines the evidence for both, using some deep cuts into bargaining theory to help us understand what is happening. 0:00 Russia's Oil Cuts 2:11 Recent Oil Politics 4:31 Is Russia Losing Its Oil Capacity? 9:58 The Case for Voluntary Russian Cuts 13:24 Why Impatience Is a Virtue in Cartel Collusion 17:45 The Meta Problem with Uncertain Capacity 19:23 The Main Implications for the War The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement. Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 DE (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de): By Bundesarchiv: https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-K0616-0001-110 https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-1986-0416-418 https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-1986-0421-010 Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0): By RIA Novosti: http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#417888 http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#850809 Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0): By Thomas Taylor Hammond: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:May_Day_Parade_in_Moscow_1964_Hammond_Slides_24.jpg Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0): By Kremlin.ru: http://state.kremlin.ru/president/allbio http://tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/78/events/50329 en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52825 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063 http://www.en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/531/events/55776/ http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56697 http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/regions/ROS/events/56771 http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/615/events/57786 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59289 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490 http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/615/events/60856 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61732 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61799 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61802 http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/615/events/61803 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69309 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69366 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70098 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71104 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73083 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73200 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73620 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73624